8421bit/niopd-skills/niopd-bs-market-opportunity

Market Opportunity Analysis Skill

This skill provides rigorous market sizing and opportunity analysis using the TAM/SAM/SOM framework to quantify addressable markets.

Theoretical Foundation

TAM/SAM/SOM Framework

pie title Market Sizing Framework
    "TAM (Total)" : 100
    "SAM (Serviceable)" : 30
    "SOM (Obtainable)" : 5

Sizing Approaches

1. Top-Down: Start with industry data, narrow down
2. Bottom-Up: Build from unit economics and segments
3. Value Theory: Calculate value created for customers

When to Use

• New product evaluation
• Investor presentations
• Market entry decisions
• Strategic planning
• Resource allocation

Instructions

Step 1: Configuration

1. Read .claude/AGENTS.md for preferences
2. Identify product/service to analyze
3. Define geographic and temporal scope

Step 2: Define Market Context

• What problem does the product solve?
• Who experiences this problem?
• What is the current spending in this area?

Step 3: Calculate TAM

Research total market size:

• Industry reports and analyst data
• Government statistics
• Trade association data
• Calculate: Total potential customers × Average spend

Step 4: Calculate SAM

Narrow to serviceable market:

• Geographic limitations
• Segment focus
• Distribution capabilities
• Technology requirements

Step 5: Calculate SOM

Estimate realistic capture:

• Competitive intensity
• Go-to-market capability
• Time horizon (1-3 years)
• Historical benchmarks

Step 6: Identify Market Gaps

Analyze opportunities:

• Underserved segments
• Unmet needs
• Competitive weaknesses
• Emerging trends

Step 7: Generate Report

File path: 01-sources/[YYYYMMDD]-market-opportunity-v0.md

Contents:

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Definition
3. TAM Analysis ($X, methodology)
4. SAM Analysis ($Y, rationale)
5. SOM Analysis ($Z, assumptions)
6. Market Dynamics
7. Competitive Landscape Summary
8. Key Opportunities
9. Risks and Limitations
10. Recommendations

Output Specifications

• File Naming: [YYYYMMDD]-market-opportunity-v0.md
• Location: 01-sources/
• Template: references/market-opportunity-template.md

Related Skills

• niopd-mr-competitor: Competitive analysis
• niopd-mr-segmentation: Market segments
• niopd-dt-scenarios: Future market scenarios
• niopd-st-canvas: Business model fit