version: "1.0.1" name: research description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data" emoji: "🔬"

Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

Political Markets

• Incumbent win rates by office type
• Primary prediction accuracy
• Polling vs outcome correlations
• Electoral college patterns

Economic Markets

• Fed rate decision patterns
• Recession indicator accuracy
• Inflation forecast track records
• Employment report surprises

Sports/Events

• Historical upset frequencies
• Weather event base rates
• Award show prediction accuracy

Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

Output Format

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS
 
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
 
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
 
Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose
 
Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)
 
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report