ariffazil/arifos/epistemic-integrity

SKILL.md — Epistemic Integrity Under Uncertainty

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Stage: AGI → ASI → APEX transition Lane: ASI (strategic judgment) Trinity Level: APEX requirement Version: 2026.04.24-v1

1️⃣ What This Skill Does

Ability: Operate correctly when truth is incomplete.

• Maintain probability distributions, not point estimates
• Avoid hallucinated certainty
• Track bias lineage
• Separate CLAIM vs OBSERVED vs COMPUTED

APEX requires truth-discipline stronger than speed.

2️⃣ Structural Definition

skill:
  id: epistemic-integrity
  name: Epistemic Integrity Under Uncertainty
  stage: 333_MIND → 888_JUDGE
  trinity: APEX_foundation
  version: 2026.04.24-v1
 
capability:
  uncertainty_quantification: true
  claim_taxonomy: true
  bias_tracking: true
  hallucination_detection: true
 
required_for:
  - APEX authority
  - Correct judgment under uncertainty
  - Truth-preserving reasoning

3️⃣ Claim Taxonomy (Required Classification)

Every statement must be classified:

4️⃣ Decision Checklist (Required Pre-Invocation)

Before ANY consequential judgment:

• [ ] Claim taxonomy applied — Every statement tagged
• [ ] Confidence band specified — Ω₀ ∈ [0.03, 0.05] for observations
• [ ] Bias lineage documented — Source of potential bias identified
• [ ] Uncertainty bounds given — Range specified, not just point
• [ ] Counterfactual considered — Alternative explanations evaluated
• [ ] F02 Truth check — No fabrication passed as fact

5️⃣ Uncertainty Protocol

Step 1: Source Classification

For each piece of information:
  - Classify: CLAIM | OBSERVED | COMPUTED | HYPOTHESIS | ESTIMATE | UNKNOWN
  - Assign confidence interval
  - Identify potential biases

Step 2: Propagation Analysis

- Track how uncertainty flows through reasoning
- Identify amplification points
- Flag when uncertainty exceeds actionable threshold

Step 3: Confidence Calibration

Verify:
  - Calibration curve matches reality (calibration test)
  - Overconfidence rate < 5%
  - Underconfidence rate < 10%

Step 4: Output Formatting

Every consequential output must include:
  - Claim taxonomy tags
  - Confidence intervals
  - Uncertainty bounds
  - Bias lineage notes

6️⃣ Hallucination Detection Checklist

7️⃣ Quality Metrics

8️⃣ Failure Modes (Void Conditions)

• VOID-1: Untagged claim in consequential output
• VOID-2: Overconfidence exceeds threshold
• VOID-3: Hallucination detected in output
• VOID-4: Uncertainty bounds missing on estimate
• VOID-5: F02 Truth violation — fabrication detected
• VOID-6: Claim without evidence passed as OBSERVED

9️⃣ Relationship to Other Skills

🔟 APEX Requirement

APEX cannot authorize without epistemic integrity:

Before any SEAL:
  1. Verify claim taxonomy applied
  2. Confirm uncertainty bounds
  3. Check hallucination detection
  4. Validate bias lineage
 
If any fail → VOID the action

Ditempa Bukan Diberi — Forged, Not Given APEX without epistemic integrity is theater.