cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents/estimation

Claude Code and agent skill by cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents

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Bound it before you build it. Use when a decision is blocked by "we don't have data", an estimate looks suspiciously precise, someone asks "is this even feasible?", "how much capacity do we need?", "will this scale?", or a claimed number has never been cross-checked by a second method.

Install

npx vskill@latest install cdeust/zetetic-team-subagents/estimation

SKILL.md

Estimation

Problem shape: a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen.

Relevant geniuses

AgentUse when
fermidecision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure
erlangcapacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits)
thompson"will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis
laplacepriors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown
carnotefficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?"
erdosexistence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration

Invocation

  1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run

tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>" and take the top ranked match.

  1. Load it: tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then read

agents/genius/<agent>.md in full.

  1. Apply the agent's <workflow> step by step and answer in its

<output-format>. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value.

  1. Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before

the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape).

  1. If no shape above matches, use a built-in agent with the closest GENIUS: pattern from rules/agent-routes.json instead.

Refuse when

  • The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide —

say what measurement would be needed instead.

  • The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.

Security

  • Security scanPassed, 90 of 100Pattern checks on the skill's files.
  • Model reviewPassed

Quality evaluation

  • Task evaluationNot runNo evaluation yet. Run one in Skill Studio.

Source

Popularity

Repository stars
7
Repository forks
3
7-day trend score
10

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