cilipep/ai-agent-with-tslab/walk-forward-validation
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Anchored expanding-window walk-forward validation for time-series ML models. Trains per fold, optimizes threshold, reports per-fold metrics.
Install
npx vskill@latest install cilipep/ai-agent-with-tslab/walk-forward-validationSKILL.md
Walk-Forward Validation
When to use
- Evaluating time-series trading models without look-ahead bias
- User asks for "walk-forward", "backtest", or "out-of-sample testing"
- Need honest performance metrics
Steps
- Split data into N folds with expanding training window
- For each fold: train models on [0..train_end], test on [test_start..test_end]
- Optimize prediction threshold on validation subset (0.3-0.6 range)
- Run backtest with stop-loss, take-profit, trailing stop, transaction costs
- Concatenate equity curves, compute aggregate metrics
Template
Key gotchas
- Train window EXPANDS each fold (anchored), not slides
- Always split train→val (85/15) for threshold optimization BEFORE test
- Equity curves must be chained:
part = part * equity_parts[-1][-1] - Use
start_idx=test_startin backtest to align prices with predictions - Min 3 trades per fold to avoid noise
Security
- Security scanPassed, 90 of 100Pattern checks on the skill's files.
- Model reviewPassed
Quality evaluation
- Task evaluationNot runNo evaluation yet. Run one in Skill Studio.
Source
- SKILL.md in the repositoryChecking.mimocode/skills/walk-forward-validation/SKILL.md
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