guia-matthieu/clawfu-skills/customer-discovery

I'm starting customer discovery for [business idea].
Help me document my hypotheses and design validation experiments.
Use Steve Blank's Customer Development methodology.

Here's what I've learned from [X] customer interviews: [summary]
Evaluate my progress against Customer Discovery criteria.
Should I proceed, pivot, or go back to more interviews?

I need to validate this hypothesis: [hypothesis]
Design a Customer Discovery experiment to test it.
What would prove it true? What would prove it false?

## Business Model Canvas Hypotheses
 
Before talking to customers, document what you BELIEVE to be true.
These are GUESSES until validated.
 
### Customer Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| C1 | Our target customer is [WHO] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C2 | They have this problem: [WHAT] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C3 | The problem is severe because [WHY] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| C4 | They currently solve it by [HOW] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
 
### Value Proposition Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| V1 | Our solution provides [BENEFIT] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| V2 | Customers care about [FEATURE/OUTCOME] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| V3 | We're differentiated by [UNIQUE VALUE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
 
### Channel Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| H1 | We can reach customers through [CHANNEL] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| H2 | Customer acquisition will cost [ESTIMATE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
 
### Revenue Hypotheses
| # | Hypothesis | Confidence | Evidence |
|---|------------|------------|----------|
| R1 | Customers will pay [PRICE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| R2 | Revenue model: [TYPE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |
| R3 | Lifetime value: [ESTIMATE] | Low/Med/High | [None yet] |

## Hypothesis Prioritization Matrix
 
Prioritize by RISK and IMPACT:
 
| Hypothesis | If WRONG, Impact | Current Confidence | Priority |
|------------|------------------|-------------------|----------|
| [H1] | Fatal/Major/Minor | Low/Med/High | P1/P2/P3 |
| [H2] | Fatal/Major/Minor | Low/Med/High | P1/P2/P3 |
 
### Priority Rules:
- P1: Fatal if wrong + Low confidence → Validate FIRST
- P2: Major if wrong + Low/Med confidence → Validate SOON
- P3: Minor if wrong OR High confidence → Validate LATER
 
### Your P1 Hypotheses (Validate These First):
1. ________________________________
2. ________________________________
3. ________________________________
 
These are your "leap of faith" assumptions.

## Experiment Design Template
 
### Hypothesis Being Tested:
"We believe [CUSTOMER SEGMENT] has [PROBLEM] and would [BEHAVIOR]."
 
### Experiment Type:
- [ ] Customer Interviews (Problem Discovery)
- [ ] Solution Interviews (Solution Validation)
- [ ] Landing Page Test (Demand Validation)
- [ ] Concierge MVP (Solution Validation)
- [ ] Smoke Test (Demand Validation)
 
### Success Criteria:
**Validated if:** [Specific, measurable outcome]
**Invalidated if:** [Specific, measurable outcome]
 
Example:
- Validated: 8+ of 10 customers describe this exact problem unprompted
- Invalidated: Fewer than 5 of 10 mention this problem
 
### Sample Size:
- Minimum: [Number] customers
- Target segment: [Description]
 
### Data to Collect:
1.
2.
3.
 
### Timeline:
- Start: [Date]
- End: [Date]
- Go/No-Go Decision: [Date]

## Customer Discovery Interview Framework
 
### PHASE 1: Problem Discovery (First 5-10 interviews)
 
**Goal:** Understand the problem space, NOT pitch solutions
 
**Interview Structure:**
1. **Context** (5 min): Their role, background, day-to-day
2. **Problem Exploration** (15 min): Deep dive into the problem area
3. **Existing Solutions** (5 min): What they use today
4. **Impact** (5 min): How the problem affects them
5. **Wrap-up** (5 min): Referrals, next steps
 
**Key Questions:**
- "Tell me about your biggest challenge with [area]..."
- "Walk me through the last time you dealt with [problem]..."
- "What solutions have you tried? What worked/didn't work?"
- "How much time/money does this cost you?"
- "If this magically disappeared, what would change?"
 
**DO NOT:**
- Pitch your solution
- Ask leading questions
- Talk more than 30% of the time
- Ask "would you use/pay for..."
 
### PHASE 2: Solution Discovery (Next 5-10 interviews)
 
**Goal:** Test if your solution addresses validated problems
 
**Only proceed to Phase 2 if:**
- [ ] You've talked to 10+ potential customers
- [ ] Clear problem patterns emerged
- [ ] Problems are severe and frequent enough
- [ ] Customers are actively seeking solutions
 
**Solution Interview Structure:**
1. **Recap** (3 min): Confirm the problem you heard
2. **Solution Demo** (10 min): Show concept/prototype
3. **Reaction** (10 min): Their honest feedback
4. **Commitment** (5 min): Would they try/buy/refer?
 
**Key Questions:**
- "Does this solve the problem you described?"
- "What's missing?"
- "What would you pay for this?"
- "Would you be willing to pilot this?"
- "Who else should see this?"

## Customer Discovery Scorecard
 
### Problem Validation
 
| Criteria | Threshold | Your Result | Pass? |
|----------|-----------|-------------|-------|
| # of interviews completed | 10+ | | Y/N |
| % who confirmed the problem unprompted | 70%+ | | Y/N |
| Problem severity (1-10 avg) | 7+ | | Y/N |
| Already spending money on solutions | 50%+ | | Y/N |
| Actively seeking alternatives | 30%+ | | Y/N |
 
**Problem Validated:** All Y → Proceed to Solution Validation
**Problem NOT Validated:** Any N → Pivot or dig deeper
 
### Solution Validation
 
| Criteria | Threshold | Your Result | Pass? |
|----------|-----------|-------------|-------|
| # of solution interviews | 10+ | | Y/N |
| Said "this solves my problem" | 70%+ | | Y/N |
| Willing to try/pilot | 50%+ | | Y/N |
| Willing to pay (some amount) | 30%+ | | Y/N |
| Gave commitment (deposit, LOI, intro) | 3+ people | | Y/N |
 
**Solution Validated:** All Y → Proceed to MVP
**Solution NOT Validated:** Any N → Iterate or pivot
 
### Decision Framework
 

## Customer Discovery Learning Log
 
### Round [#] Summary
 
**Dates:** [Start] - [End]
**Interviews Conducted:** [#]
**Customer Segments Covered:** [List]
 
### Validated Hypotheses ✅
| Hypothesis | Evidence | Confidence Now |
|------------|----------|----------------|
| [H1] | [Quotes/Data] | High |
 
### Invalidated Hypotheses ❌
| Hypothesis | Evidence | Next Step |
|------------|----------|-----------|
| [H2] | [Quotes/Data] | Pivot to... |
 
### Surprises / New Insights 🔍
| Insight | Implication |
|---------|-------------|
| [Learning] | [What this means] |
 
### Updated Business Model
[What changed based on learnings]
 
### Next Validation Round
| Hypothesis to Test | Experiment | Timeline |
|--------------------|------------|----------|
| [H3] | [Method] | [Dates] |

Opening: "I'm researching how mid-size companies handle employee onboarding.
Not selling anything - just learning. Mind if I ask some questions?"
 
Problem Exploration:
1. "When you hired your last employee, walk me through the onboarding process..."
2. "What took the most time?"
3. "Where do things typically go wrong?"
4. "Tell me about a time onboarding didn't go well..."
 
Current State:
5. "What tools or systems are you using for this?"
6. "What do you like about your current process?"
7. "What's frustrating about it?"