version: "1.0.0" name: value-equation description: The Value Equation from $100M Offers. Use to diagnose any offer across the 4 vectors ((Dream Outcome × Probability) ÷ (Effort × Time Delay)) before writing copy. Identifies which vector is the critical bottleneck and produces a justified numeric score.

Value Equation

Source: Alex Hormozi, $100M Offers, Chapter 6.

The formula

Value = (Dream Outcome × Perceived Probability of Success) ÷ (Time Delay × Effort & Sacrifice)

You want to maximize the numerator. You want to minimize the denominator.

The 4 vectors

1. Dream Outcome (maximize)

Question: What does the client ACTUALLY want? Not what you sell.

Diagnostic:

• 10/10: Specific, quantified, emotionally loaded result — the thing the client would say out loud at a bar
• 5/10: Generic result ("increase sales")
• 1/10: Focused on the product, not the outcome ("8 lesson modules")

2. Perceived Probability of Success (maximize)

Question: Why would the client believe this will work FOR THEM specifically?

Levers:

• Comparable case studies (similar ICP, explicit numbers)
• A named, explained mechanism
• Conditional performance guarantee
• Live demo / sample / trial
• Authority endorsements

Diagnostic:

• 10/10: Client sees 5+ case studies identical to their profile + conditional guarantee + named mechanism
• 5/10: Has case studies but they're not comparable; generic guarantee
• 1/10: No case studies, no guarantee, no named mechanism

3. Time Delay (minimize)

Question: How long until the client SEES a result?

Levers:

• Quick wins in the first week
• Phased roadmap with visible milestones
• Done-for-you / done-with-you implementation (cuts time to first result)

Diagnostic:

• 10/10: First measurable result in 7-14 days
• 5/10: Result in 30-60 days with interim milestones
• 1/10: "It'll pay off eventually" / 6+ months with no milestone

4. Effort & Sacrifice (minimize)

Question: What does the client have to DO and GIVE UP?

Levers:

• Ready-made templates (vs building from scratch)
• 1:1 support or an active community
• Automations that cut execution time
• "Done-for-you" on whatever can be offloaded

Diagnostic:

• 10/10: Client invests <5h/week and uses ready-made templates
• 5/10: Client invests 10-15h/week and builds material from scratch
• 1/10: Client invests 20+h/week, no templates, no support

How to run the audit

1. Collect the 4 inputs from the client (dream / probability / time / effort)
2. Assign a 1-10 score to each vector with a one-sentence justification
3. Compute the aggregate score: (Dream × Probability) / (Time × Effort) on a normalized scale
4. Identify the critical vector (the lowest) — that's where you concentrate the fix
5. Propose the top 3 levers for that vector

Anti-patterns

• Inflating Dream Outcome without raising Probability (aggressive ad + weak page = no-buy + refund)
• Cutting Time without securing Probability (you under-promise and over-deliver on timing, but the result never comes)
• Everything focused on reducing Effort (turns into "too easy," reads as low value)

Application by use case

Detailed reference

See reference/100m-offers-extracts.md (Value Equation section).