name: hive-prediction-markets description: Use this skill when the user asks about prediction markets, meaning Polymarket events, markets, outcomes, odds, prices, order books, liquidity, odds history, or a wallet's positions and trades, including "what are the odds of X", "find markets about Y", or Kalshi questions (answer from Polymarket and say Kalshi is not covered). Use it whenever live prediction-market evidence is needed. Never present market probability as ground truth. license: MIT metadata: package: "@hiveintelligence/agent-skills" category: "prediction-markets" requires_network: "true" version: 1.7.0

hive-prediction-markets: Prediction Markets

Discover and analyze Polymarket prediction markets with prices, order books, odds history, and wallet positions and trades, always framed as market-implied odds rather than truth. Polymarket's Gamma, CLOB, and Data APIs are keyless, so these tools work on the keyless lane. Kalshi is not covered: its developer agreement requires a data license Hive does not hold, so answer Kalshi questions from Polymarket where a matching market exists and say plainly that the Kalshi side is unavailable.

Task toolset and identifiers

Toolset: prediction_markets. Read hive://toolsets/prediction_markets before execution; it is authoritative for the current output schema, material-call budget, phases, fallback condition, and stop conditions.

• Polymarket: polymarket_search_markets (topic), polymarket_get_events

(event slug), polymarket_get_market (market slug or condition id), polymarket_get_price_history and polymarket_get_orderbook (CLOB token id), polymarket_get_wallet_positions and polymarket_get_wallet_activity (EVM wallet address).

• Required: a market slug, condition id, token id, wallet address, or a

search query, depending on the request.

• Optional: status filter, limit, interval, depth, outcome.

If the user starts with a topic, search candidates first and ask for selection when multiple markets match; similar markets can have different resolution criteria.

Before choosing endpoints, select exactly one matching entry from the exact workflow's routes[]. Follow its ordered steps, use a fallback only under that step's published condition, stop at three material calls, and preserve the selected route_id in the typed result. The broad coverageCatalog is discovery coverage, not an execution plan.

Procedure

1. Call search_tools with the venue and need, or read

hive://toolsets/prediction_markets.

1. Call get_api_endpoint_schema for each endpoint before calling it.
2. Search markets or events for topic prompts; resolve the exact slug,

ticker, condition id, or token id before pulling books, history, or trades.

1. Add liquidity, spread, and freshness context before interpreting prices.
2. Report the implied odds per outcome, volume or liquidity, venue, provider,

and freshness, and never present probability as ground truth.

Bounded calls

• Use small search limits and page through only when needed.
• Do not fetch all trades or a wallet's full history unless the user asks

for a deep dive.

• Keep outcome-token prices separate from event-level interpretation.

Worked example

User: "What are the odds on the next Fed rate decision, and how has that moved this month?"

1. polymarket_search_markets with {"query": "fed rate decision", "limit": 5}.
2. If several markets match, list candidates with resolution criteria and ask

which to inspect, or pick the highest-liquidity exact match and say so.

1. polymarket_get_orderbook for the YES token, then

polymarket_get_price_history with {"token_id": "...", "interval": "1m"}, and report bid, ask, mid, spread, liquidity, and the month's move.

1. Frame the prices as market-implied odds with volume and freshness.

Report template

## Summary
[Market or event read and top outcomes in one or two sentences.]
 
## Calls made
-Toolset: prediction_markets
-Endpoint(s): [exact endpoint names]
-Identifiers: [slug, condition id, token id, wallet]
 
## Evidence
-Outcomes and prices: [per outcome, per venue]
-Liquidity, spread, volume: [values plus as-of]
-Provenance: [provider, fetched_at, observed_at or cache_age_ms, runtime status per call]
 
## Caveats
[Market probability is not truth, thin liquidity, stale history, candidate ambiguity.]
 
## Next action
[Inspect the selected market, book, history, or wallet, only if needed.]

Gotchas

• Market prices reflect trading and liquidity, not verified probability.
• Similar markets can have different resolution criteria; quote them when

comparing venues.

• Prices are per outcome token in the 0 to 1 range; the YES and NO tokens of

one market are separate books.

• Event-level and market-level data are not interchangeable.

Evidence receipt (required)

End every Hive-backed answer with a compact receipt built from the _hive object on each material tool response:

• provider, tool, fetched_at, observed_at, cache_age_ms, and runtime_status
• receipt_id, receipt_version, server/build version, and SHA-256 input/result

digests when present (self-checks, not signatures)

• source, cache_status, truncated, and any warnings
• canonical market identifiers (slug, condition id, token id) present

in provider data

• material provider disagreements and how they were handled
• checks that were unavailable, gated, stale, truncated, or intentionally not run
• a claims[] citation from each material statement to exact receipt IDs
• one coverage[] entry for every canonical evidence phase, with each gap explained

Never turn missing evidence into a clean result, silently merge conflicting provider values, or omit a degraded/fallback call from the receipt. observed_at is Hive's first-observation/original cache-population time, and cache_age_ms: 0 only means newly retrieved by Hive. Use provider time or trade time for source recency; if absent, mark it unknown. Run validate_task_result before presenting the typed workflow result; it checks structure but cannot authenticate an invented receipt.

Runtime status handling

If a market search succeeds but the book or history read is degraded, return the candidates and label the missing market details clearly.

Hand-offs

• General crypto market prices: hive-market-research.
• A trader's full wallet activity outside Polymarket: hive-wallet-investigation.
• Standing "alert me when odds move" requests: hive-stateful-monitoring

with a prediction_market monitor.