kohulan/orthonym-skills/council

Council

Overview

A strategy question is not answered from what you already know. It is answered by searching first, then convening a council of distinct expert voices, then making one call.

Core principle: every load-bearing number or claim — in the question, the handoff, memory, or a planning note — is a hypothesis until you re-derive it from ground truth this turn. A single well-reasoned voice is exactly how a false premise ships. The council exists so that one voice attacks another before the answer reaches the user.

Why this is a hard rule: "concentrated ROI" pools in chemistry projects routinely over-count 15–50× (e.g. a curated list of "~100 candidate defects" that turns out to have 2 genuine instances on re-derivation; "124 flagged structures" that turns out to be ~6 genuine). A baseline test of this exact skill's absence: three capable agents given one strategy question produced three different recommendations, one built entirely on an unvalidated number. Search + council makes the answer convergent instead of a coin-flip.

The protocol (do these in order)

1. Search before you weigh — validate the premise

• Extract every load-bearing claim from the question and from your loaded context

(handoff, memory, planning notes). Treat each as a claim to test, not a fact.

• Give each independent facet its own investigator, run in parallel (parallel Agent

calls); check a facet you can settle in a handful of tool calls inline. The standard three facets for a "should we do X?" question:

1. Validate the headline number for X (re-derive the reachable win from ground truth).
2. Size the alternative (what does the road-not-taken actually offer?).
3. Assess X's risk (blast radius, determinism/regression surface, effort).

• In your project, ground truth = your evaluation corpus/benchmark results, your run

ledger, and the pipeline probed directly (any shortcuts/caches off, reproduce-first), not the tag/heuristic count in a note.

2. Convene the council — at least three named voices

After the evidence is in, give the decision three or more distinct voices, each reasoning only from the evidence just gathered, each free to disagree:

• 🛠️ Senior Engineer — feasibility, blast radius, determinism/regression risk, effort,

root-cause vs band-aid, does it fit the codebase's grain.

• 📊 Product Manager — reachable wins, ROI, milestone fit, opportunity cost, what

actually moves the metric the user cares about.

• 🔬 Skeptic / QA — attacks the premise and the numbers, names what is still unverified,

hunts the hidden coupling and the failure mode nobody priced in.

• ➕ Add a domain expert or user-advocate voice when the decision turns on one.

Each voice is 1–3 sentences with its own read and may reach a different conclusion. Surface real disagreement rather than manufacturing consensus.

3. The chair synthesizes — the answer the user reads

Always use this order, leading with the call:

1. The call — one option, stated first, unmissable.
2. Confidence + the single biggest remaining uncertainty.
3. All options side by side — a compact table (reachable wins / risk / effort). They

asked to see the options; show them.

1. What would flip the call — the one observation that would change the answer.

The search and the council voices follow the call, as its support.

Scale to the stakes

Rules

• A number you did not re-derive this turn is not evidence — it is a claim to test.
• No council of yes-men. If every voice agrees instantly, you under-searched or you are

steering to the expected answer. Add the skeptic's strongest counter and check it.

• Make the call. "It depends" / "both are fine" is not an answer. State the call and the

condition that would change it.

Rationalizations — stop if you catch one

Worked examples (illustrative)

Q: "Fix the low-confidence-prediction cluster, or ship the pending featurizer refactor — your call?" The handoff said the cluster = "~100 rows, one root cause." Call: ship the featurizer refactor first, targeting its low-risk sub-fix. Confidence: high; biggest uncertainty: whether the cluster gates a future model family.

Flips if: the cluster turns out to gate a future model family — then build the contained half only. Search (3 parallel investigators): a corpus scan finds 2 genuine reachable wins from a targeted cluster fix (most tagged rows are out-of-domain scaffolds the model was never trained on); the ledger shows ~45 low-risk wins from the featurizer refactor's smaller sub-fix; a code trace shows the cluster fix un-masks a determinism defect in a shared normalization step (moderate+ risk). Council: 🛠️ "2 wins behind a determinism-sensitive guard is a bad trade." 📊 "2 vs ~45 reachable — not close." 🔬 "The ~100 was another over-counted pool."

Q (small, reversible): "Batch size 32 or 64 for tonight's retrain?" Call: 64. Confidence: medium; the run ledger shows both prior runs at 64 converged. Options: 32 (slower) / 64 (half the wall-clock). Flips if: out-of-memory at 64. Council: 🛠️ "Fits in memory." 📊 "Halves the wall-clock." 🔬 "Only two prior runs."