version: "1.0.0" name: polymarket-analyzer description: > Use this skill whenever the user wants to find trading opportunities, detect arbitrage, analyze a market, perform edge detection, find mispricing, do probability analysis, evaluate orderbook depth, find momentum signals, or assess Polymarket market quality. Triggers: "find opportunities", "detect arbitrage", "analyze market", "edge detection", "mispricing", "probability analysis", "orderbook analysis", "momentum scanner", "market inefficiency", "price gap", "volume surge", "trading edge", "market analysis".

Polymarket Analyzer Skill

Detect trading edges and opportunities across Polymarket prediction markets using real-time data from the Gamma and CLOB APIs. Zero authentication required -- all analysis is read-only.

Available Scripts

1. Find Arbitrage Edges (scripts/find_edges.py)

Scans all active markets for pricing inefficiencies:

• Underpriced: YES + NO < $1.00 (guaranteed profit if you buy both sides)
• Overpriced: YES + NO > $1.02 (sell opportunity)
• Calculates profit after fees for each opportunity
• Outputs market name, prices, sum, potential profit, and fee impact

python scripts/find_edges.py
python scripts/find_edges.py --min-edge 0.02 --limit 500

2. Analyze Order Book (scripts/analyze_orderbook.py)

Deep analysis of a single market's order book:

• Spread, mid-price, bid/ask depth (top N levels)
• Bid-ask imbalance ratio (signals directional pressure)
• Thin vs thick book classification
• Liquidity concentration analysis

python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID>
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID> --depth 10

3. Momentum Scanner (scripts/momentum_scanner.py)

Detect markets with unusual activity:

• Volume surges: 24h volume significantly exceeds 7-day average
• Price momentum: recent price moves in one direction
• Liquidity changes: markets gaining or losing depth
• Ranked output by signal strength

python scripts/momentum_scanner.py
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 300

4. Correlation Tracker (scripts/correlation_tracker.py)

Detect hidden correlated exposure in your portfolio:

• Groups positions by topic (crypto, politics, sports, geopolitics, etc.)
• Detects shared qualifiers ("insider trading", "FIFA World Cup", etc.)
• Warns when correlated clusters exceed concentration limits
• Outputs diversification score (0-100)

python scripts/correlation_tracker.py
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --json
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --threshold 0.10

Workflow

1. Run find_edges.py to scan for arbitrage across all active markets
2. For interesting markets, run analyze_orderbook.py to check if the edge is executable
3. Run momentum_scanner.py to find markets with directional momentum
4. Combine findings to identify the best opportunities

Fee Awareness

Most Polymarket markets are fee-free. Crypto 5-min/15-min markets have dynamic taker fees: fee = baseRate * min(price, 1 - price) * size. See references/fee-model.md for the full fee calculator and breakeven analysis.

Strategy Reference

See references/viable-strategies.md for the four strategies that still work in 2026 with win rates, expected returns, and risk profiles.

Important Disclaimers

• This skill performs read-only analysis only -- no trades are executed
• Past patterns do not guarantee future results
• Always verify opportunities manually before trading
• Not financial advice