nvidia-tao/tao-skill-bank/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast
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Kumo-Forecast — transformer-based multivariate time series forecasting with DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval), interpretability, and fine-tuning. Use when the user asks to "forecast with Kumo-Forecast", "run forecasting inference", "use perform_forecasting", "DARR mode", "context-enhanced forecasting", "lag horizon attribution", "interpretability", "fine-tune forecasting", "fine-tune forecasting with automl", "hyper-parameter optimization with forecasting", or mentions "kumo-forecast", "moment_head_512_6hr", or "run8_best_model_cr".
Install
npx vskill@latest install nvidia-tao/tao-skill-bank/tao-finetune-kumo-forecastSKILL.md
The same SKILL.md was published earlier as nvidia/skills/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast.
Kumo-Forecast
Transformer-based multivariate time series forecasting using self-supervised pretraining on diverse temporal data. Three inference modes: standard (direct forecast), DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval blending), and interpretability (latent trajectory extraction, semantic flow, lag×horizon attribution, trajectory stability, and diagnostic ratios — full explanation bundle with PDF report). Fine-tuning adapts the forecasting head — and optionally the cross-channel layer — to your domain.
Source code: https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS Pretrained weights: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Kumo-Forecast
External dependencies
| Dependency | Purpose | Install | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Python 3.10+ | Runtime | https://www.python.org/downloads/ | |
| uv | Package + environment manager | pip install uv | |
| CUDA toolkit (optional) | GPU acceleration | https://developer.nvidia.com/cuda-downloads | |
| matplotlib (optional) | Interpretability PDF report, heatmap PNG, flow + stability charts | uv add matplotlib |
Credentials
nvidia/Kumo-Forecast is a public repo — no token required for downloading weights. If you hit a 401/403 (gated access or license not accepted) or a 504 on first download, see the Known pitfalls section.
Quick start
Inference
Import and call perform_forecasting from sdk/forecasting.py. It auto-downloads weights, standardizes input, runs autoregressive rollout for long horizons, and returns a DataFrame with {target_column}_forecast rows for the requested horizon.
For regular inference, put forecasting arguments in YAML and pass the file as config. Start from the fully commented template in sdk/forecasting_inference_config.yaml.
The YAML can be flat or use a top-level inference: section inside a larger TAO/AutoML spec. Unknown keys raise ValueError.
Checkpoints
| File | Mode | Downloaded when | |
|---|---|---|---|
run8_best_model_cr.pt | Default (cross-channel on) | use_cross_channel=True (default) | |
moment_head_512_6hr.pt | Standard (no cross-channel) | use_cross_channel=False | |
standardizer.pkl | Both | Always |
Set use_cross_channel=False in ForecastingConfig or YAML to use the standard checkpoint:
DARR mode (context-enhanced forecasting)
Supply context_df to enable DARR: the SDK builds a kNN memory from historical windows and blends direct predictions with retrieved neighbors (alpha * direct + (1 - alpha) * kNN).
Context and input datasets do not need identical columns — the SDK aligns to common features and warns when columns differ. Both must share timestamp_column and target_column.
Interpretability
Set interpretability=True to activate the Model-Agnostic Interpretability Framework. It produces localized, horizon-specific, time-aware explanations — including lag×horizon attribution, semantic flow, trajectory stability, diagnostic ratios, and (for multivariate inputs) channel-axis attribution and coupling analysis.
For the full parameter reference, output bundle, and component descriptions, see[`Kumo-Forecast/README.md`](https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS/blob/main/Kumo-Forecast/README.md).
Fine-tuning
Fine-tune the forecasting head (encoder/embedder frozen by default) on your own time series. --ckpt-init auto warm-starts from the published Kumo-Forecast checkpoint; --ckpt-init none trains a fresh head from the base backbone.
Fine-tuning arguments
| Argument | Default | Description | |
|---|---|---|---|
--run-config | — | YAML config from AutoMLRunner ({config_path}). CLI flags override file values. | |
--csv | required* | Single CSV split temporally into train/val | |
--train-csv | required* | Training CSV (mutually exclusive with --csv) | |
--val-csv | — | Validation CSV when --train-csv is used | |
--timestamp-col | timestamp | Datetime column to exclude from features | |
--target-cols | all numeric | Comma-separated columns to forecast | |
--model-name | AutonLab/MOMENT-1-large | Backbone model identifier | |
--ckpt-init | auto | auto = published Kumo-Forecast weights; none = fresh head; or path to .pt | |
--standardizer-init | standardizer.pkl | Standardizer pickle used when --ckpt-init auto | |
--repo-id | nvidia/Kumo-Forecast | HuggingFace repo for auto-download | |
--seq-len | 512 | Input context length | |
--forecast-horizon | 72 | Steps ahead to predict | |
--stride | forecast_horizon | Sliding window stride (None → horizon) | |
--val-ratio | 0.1 | Validation fraction when --csv is used | |
--test-ratio | 0.0 | Test holdout fraction when --csv is used | |
--no-standardize | false | Disable per-dataset standardization | |
--epochs | 5 | Training epochs | |
--batch-size | 8 | Per-GPU batch size | |
--lr | 1e-4 | AdamW learning rate (OneCycleLR scheduler) | |
--weight-decay | 0.0 | AdamW weight decay | |
--head-dropout | 0.1 | Forecasting head dropout | |
--max-norm | 5.0 | Gradient norm clip | |
--num-workers | 0 | DataLoader workers | |
--seed | 13 | Random seed | |
--output-dir | artifacts/finetune | Output directory | |
--local-files-only | false | Do not download backbone weights from HuggingFace | |
--unfreeze-encoder | false | Train the transformer encoder too | |
--unfreeze-embedder | false | Train the patch embedder too | |
--use-cross-channel | false | Add cross-channel attention layer | |
--cross-channel-heads | 8 | Attention heads in cross-channel layer | |
--cross-channel-dropout | 0.1 | Dropout in the cross-channel layer | |
--num-gpus | all available | Number of GPUs for DDP fine-tuning; set 1 to force single-GPU |
*One of --csv or --train-csv is required.
Inference with fine-tuned checkpoint
Data requirements
| Property | Requirement | |
|---|---|---|
| Rows | ≥ seq_len (default 512) for inference; validation split must also have ≥ seq_len + forecast_horizon rows | |
| Columns | timestamp + one or more numeric columns; NULLs filled with zeros automatically | |
| Timestamp | Parseable by pandas; no NULLs; uniform frequency inferred from mode of diffs | |
| Target | Must be numeric; NULLs filled with zeros | |
forecast_horizon | Max 512 steps; beyond model's native 72 triggers autoregressive rollout | |
| DARR context | ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows; must share timestamp + target columns with input |
Output structure
Inference (standard / DARR):
Fine-tuning (--output-dir artifacts/finetune_my_data):
Hardware
| Tier | Setup | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | 1× CPU | Functional; slow for long horizons | |
| Recommended | 1× NVIDIA GPU (≥8 GB VRAM) | Strongly recommended for fine-tuning | |
| Apple Silicon | MPS | Auto-detected; on par with CPU for this workload | |
| Multi-GPU fine-tuning | 2+× NVIDIA GPUs | Auto DDP via --num-gpus (defaults to all visible GPUs) |
AutoML (HPO: hyperparameter optimization)
This skill is AutoML-enabled for both fine-tuning and DARR inference. When an HPO request arrives, route it through tao-skill-bank:tao-run-automl with this model's skill_dir.
Read references/automl.md when the user asks for AutoML/HPO setup, tunable parameters, runner examples, inference trial scripts, DARR HPO, or AutoML result handoff details.
Known pitfalls
This is the start of the file. Read the full SKILL.md on GitHub.
Security
- Security scanPassed, 90 of 100Pattern checks on the skill's files.
- Model reviewPassed
Quality evaluation
- Task evaluationNot runNo evaluation yet. Run one in Skill Studio.
Source
- SKILL.md in the repositoryCheckingskills/models/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast/SKILL.md
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