reez455g/kerangka/polymarket-analyzer

Polymarket Analyzer Skill

Detect trading edges and opportunities across Polymarket prediction markets using real-time data from the Gamma and CLOB APIs. Zero authentication required -- all analysis is read-only.

Available Scripts

1. Find Arbitrage Edges (scripts/find_edges.py)

Scans all active markets for pricing inefficiencies:

• Underpriced: YES + NO < $1.00 (guaranteed profit if you buy both sides)
• Overpriced: YES + NO > $1.02 (sell opportunity)
• Calculates profit after fees for each opportunity
• Outputs market name, prices, sum, potential profit, and fee impact

python scripts/find_edges.py
python scripts/find_edges.py --min-edge 0.02 --limit 500

2. Analyze Order Book (scripts/analyze_orderbook.py)

Deep analysis of a single market's order book:

• Spread, mid-price, bid/ask depth (top N levels)
• Bid-ask imbalance ratio (signals directional pressure)
• Thin vs thick book classification
• Liquidity concentration analysis

python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID>
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID> --depth 10

3. Momentum Scanner (scripts/momentum_scanner.py)

Detect markets with unusual activity:

• Volume surges: 24h volume significantly exceeds 7-day average
• Price momentum: recent price moves in one direction
• Liquidity changes: markets gaining or losing depth
• Ranked output by signal strength

python scripts/momentum_scanner.py
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 300

4. Correlation Tracker (scripts/correlation_tracker.py)

Detect hidden correlated exposure in your portfolio:

• Groups positions by topic (crypto, politics, sports, geopolitics, etc.)
• Detects shared qualifiers ("insider trading", "FIFA World Cup", etc.)
• Warns when correlated clusters exceed concentration limits
• Outputs diversification score (0-100)

python scripts/correlation_tracker.py
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --json
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --threshold 0.10

Workflow

1. Run find_edges.py to scan for arbitrage across all active markets
2. For interesting markets, run analyze_orderbook.py to check if the edge is executable
3. Run momentum_scanner.py to find markets with directional momentum
4. Combine findings to identify the best opportunities

Fee Awareness

Most Polymarket markets are fee-free. Crypto 5-min/15-min markets have dynamic taker fees: fee = baseRate * min(price, 1 - price) * size. See references/fee-model.md for the full fee calculator and breakeven analysis.

Strategy Reference

See references/viable-strategies.md for the four strategies that still work in 2026 with win rates, expected returns, and risk profiles.

Important Disclaimers

• This skill performs read-only analysis only -- no trades are executed
• Past patterns do not guarantee future results
• Always verify opportunities manually before trading
• Not financial advice