spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-weather-trader

Polymarket Weather Trader

Trade temperature markets on Polymarket using NOAA forecast data.

🚨 Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

Template skill. Defaults to dry-run mode (no real money). The --live flag is a deliberate single-command opt-in for real-money execution. Configure tunables (entry/exit thresholds, locations, etc.) via env vars listed below.

Safety rails (read first)

This skill executes real-money trades on Polymarket only when the --live flag is passed AND the human's wallet is linked to their Simmer account. Trading is bounded by default:

• Dry-run is the default. python weather_trader.py (no flag) shows opportunities but executes no trades. The --live flag is required for real-money execution. There is no "auto-graduate" path.
• `$SIM` paper sandbox option. Set TRADING_VENUE=sim to trade Simmer's $SIM virtual currency at real prices — useful for validating the strategy without USDC exposure.
• Real-money trading requires explicit human verification. A wallet must be linked at simmer.markets/dashboard before any real trade lands. Without a linked wallet the SDK rejects real-money order construction.
• Per-trade cap. SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD defaults to $2.00 per trade. Configurable via env var, capped at the user's dashboard-set platform per-trade limit.
• Daily caps. Platform-level daily caps apply (max trades/day, max USD/day). Set at simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK settings.
• Auto stop-loss is ON by default. Server-side risk monitor watches every buy. Threshold is configurable per user at simmer.markets/dashboard → Settings → Auto Risk Monitor. It cannot protect against gap-resolution, though: weather temperature buckets jump straight to about 0 at resolution rather than decaying through your stop, so a percentage stop has no price to trigger on and no liquidity to exit into. Size for the full loss, not for the stop. See DISCLAIMER.md.
• Strategy-side safeguards. Beyond platform risk monitors, this skill checks flip-flop, slippage (SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX, default 15%), time-decay (SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE, default 2h), and resolved-market status before every order. Disable only with --no-safeguards (not recommended).
• Reversibility. Open positions exit automatically when price > SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD (default 0.45), or via client.cancel_order() / a manual sell. ENTRY_THRESHOLD is an upper bound (buy below). If you raise it above the exit default (e.g. entry 0.50 vs exit 0.45), the skill will try to sell the same position on the next cycle — raise EXIT_THRESHOLD too, or own exits yourself.

If anything above isn't clear, stop and ask the user before passing --live.

Strategy logic

Weather market outcomes are discrete: a temperature bucket ("34-35°F") either matches the actual high on resolution day or it doesn't. The strategy works when the NOAA forecast is more accurate than what the market has priced in.

Test before going live. The $SIM venue gives you a fully virtual sandbox at real market prices — recommended before any --live run.

Risk monitor. Stop-loss and take-profit thresholds are user settings (configurable at simmer.markets/dashboard → Settings → Auto Risk Monitor), shared across all skills under that user account. Per-position overrides via client.set_monitor(market_id, side, stop_loss_pct=..., take_profit_pct=...).

External wallet users: monitors emit alerts via the briefing endpoint — your agent must be running for sells to execute. Managed wallet users: server executes directly.

Setup

For wallet setup, see docs.simmer.markets/wallets.

Behaviour changes by version: CHANGELOG.md.

Required environment:

• SIMMER_API_KEY — get from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY — Polymarket wallet private key (the SDK signs orders client-side)

Then pip install --upgrade simmer-sdk (>=0.13.0) and configure tunables below.

Configuration

Legacy env var aliases (still accepted for backwards compatibility): SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY, SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT, SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION, SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES

Supported locations (city-name filter applied to market questions): NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Austin, Houston, Denver, Tel Aviv, Munich, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Ankara, Lucknow, Wellington, Madrid, Milan, Amsterdam, Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Busan, Toronto, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Cape Town, Helsinki, Jeddah, Warsaw, Paris, Panama City. The actual oracle station is parsed per-market from resolution_criteria — see "Resolution-source routing" below.

Resolution-source routing

Polymarket weather markets carry a resolution_criteria field that names the exact station the market resolves on (e.g. "Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station" with wunderground.com/.../KORD). v1.21.0+ parses that text per-market and routes to the matching forecast station instead of a city default. If a market names a station the skill doesn't know, the event is skipped with a log line. Add new stations to STATION_ID_TO_NOAA (US) or INTERNATIONAL_STATION_COORDS (international) in weather_trader.py to extend coverage — PRs welcome.

SDK initialization

from simmer_sdk import SimmerClient
client = SimmerClient.from_env(venue="polymarket", live=True)

from_env() (added in simmer-sdk 0.13.0) reads SIMMER_API_KEY from the environment and raises RuntimeError with a dashboard pointer if unset. If OWS_WALLET is set, it auto-routes through the OpenClaw shared wallet.

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py
 
# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python weather_trader.py
 
# Execute real trades
python weather_trader.py --live
 
# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing
 
# Check positions only
python weather_trader.py --positions
 
# View config
python weather_trader.py --config
 
# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python weather_trader.py --no-safeguards
 
# Disable trend detection
python weather_trader.py --no-trends
 
# Enable volatility targeting (dynamic sizing based on market vol)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing --vol-targeting
 
# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for high-frequency runs)
python weather_trader.py --live --quiet

Backtest gate (keep / kill / fix)

90-day real-capital P&L on Simmer is the lock. This gate is the fast filter before more real capital. Dogfood's MIN_HOURS=12 canary is a separate seat — do not change it here.

Reuse the existing replay harness. Do not invent a second one.

# Pinned gate (no tape, no network, no API key)
python skills/polymarket-weather-trader/scripts/run_backtest_gate.py
 
# Same tests, direct
python -m pytest skills/polymarket-weather-trader/tests/test_replay_discovery.py -q