yichengyang-ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/pm-agent-strategy-authoring

PM Agent Strategy Authoring

Use this skill when the user asks for a strategy that makes decisions with an LLM, MCP tools or external APIs.

Goals

• A runnable strategy class (an AgentStrategy subclass).
• strategy validate and paper run both succeed.
• No parameter grid search: agent strategies cannot be auto-tuned.

Code entry points

• Base class contract: oracle3/strategy/agent_strategy.py (AgentStrategy).
• LLM strategy reference: oracle3/strategy/simple_strategy.py.
• New strategies go in strategies/.

Steps

1. Create the skeleton

• oracle3 strategy create --output strategies/<name>.py --class-name <ClassName> --type agent

1. Implement the strategy

• Call the LLM, MCP tools or external APIs inside process_event.
• Non-determinism is fine: results may differ between calls.
• Write the LLM output into the reasoning field with self.record_decision(reasoning=...) so it can be monitored.
• Call trader.place_order(...) to act.
• Guard every decision with self.is_paused() to respect the control plane.

1. Quick validation

• oracle3 strategy validate --strategy-ref strategies/<name>.py:<ClassName> --dry-run --events 10 --json

1. Evaluate with paper trading (the right way to evaluate agent strategies)

• oracle3 paper run --strategy-ref strategies/<name>.py:<ClassName> --monitor
• Watch decisions and positions with oracle3 trade status --json.
• Take a full snapshot with oracle3 trade state --json.

1. Intervene and adjust

• oracle3 trade pause / oracle3 trade resume
• Hot-swap the strategy with oracle3 trade swap --strategy-ref strategies/<new>.py:<NewClass>.

Hard rules

• AgentStrategy subclasses cannot be used with research auto-tune --param-grid-json; it raises an error.
• External API calls need timeouts and error handling so they never block the event loop.
• Check self.is_paused() before every decision.
• Never use future information (no look-ahead).
• Keep runs reproducible: record the strategy file path, class name and command.