zai-org/synapse/market-news-analyst

Market News Analyst

Overview

This skill enables comprehensive analysis of market-moving news events from the past 10 days, focusing on their impact on US equity markets and commodities. The skill automatically collects news from trusted sources using WebSearch and WebFetch tools, evaluates market impact magnitude, analyzes actual market reactions, and produces structured English reports ranked by market impact significance.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• User requests analysis of recent major market news (past 10 days)
• User wants to understand market reactions to specific events (FOMC decisions, earnings, geopolitical)
• User needs comprehensive market news summary with impact assessment
• User asks about correlations between news events and commodity price movements
• User requests analysis of how central bank policy announcements affected markets

Example user requests:

• "Analyze the major market news from the past 10 days"
• "How did the latest FOMC decision impact the market?"
• "What were the most important market-moving events this week?"
• "Analyze recent geopolitical news and commodity price reactions"
• "Review mega-cap tech earnings and their market impact"

Analysis Workflow

Follow this structured 6-step workflow when analyzing market news:

Step 1: News Collection via WebSearch/WebFetch

Objective: Gather comprehensive news from the past 10 days covering major market-moving events.

Search Strategy:

Execute parallel WebSearch queries covering different news categories:

Monetary Policy:

• Search: "FOMC meeting past 10 days", "Federal Reserve interest rate", "ECB policy decision", "Bank of Japan"
• Target: Central bank decisions, forward guidance changes, inflation commentary

Inflation/Economic Data:

• Search: "CPI inflation report [current month]", "jobs report NFP", "GDP data", "PPI producer prices"
• Target: Major economic data releases and surprises

Mega-Cap Earnings:

• Search: "Apple earnings [current quarter]", "Microsoft earnings", "NVIDIA earnings", "Amazon earnings", "Tesla earnings", "Meta earnings", "Google earnings"
• Target: Results, guidance, market reactions for largest companies

Geopolitical Events:

• Search: "Middle East conflict oil prices", "Ukraine war", "US China tensions", "trade war tariffs"
• Target: Conflicts, sanctions, trade disputes affecting markets

Commodity Markets:

• Search: "oil prices news past week", "gold prices", "OPEC meeting", "natural gas prices", "copper prices"
• Target: Supply disruptions, demand shifts, price movements

Corporate News:

• Search: "major M&A announcement", "bank earnings", "tech sector news", "bankruptcy", "credit rating downgrade"
• Target: Large corporate events beyond mega-caps

Recommended News Sources (Priority Order):

1. Official sources: FederalReserve.gov, SEC.gov (EDGAR), Treasury.gov, BLS.gov
2. Tier 1 financial news: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times
3. Specialized: CNBC (real-time), MarketWatch (summaries), S&P Global Platts (commodities)

Search Execution:

• Use WebSearch for broad topic searches
• Use WebFetch for specific URLs from official sources or major news outlets
• Collect publication dates to ensure news is within 10-day window
• Capture: Event date, source, headline, key details, market context (pre-market, trading hours, after-hours)

Filtering Criteria:

• Focus on Tier 1 market-moving events (see references/market_event_patterns.md)
• Prioritize news with clear market impact (price moves, volume spikes)
• Exclude: Stock-specific small-cap news, minor product updates, routine filings

Think in English throughout collection process. Document each significant news item with:

• Date and time
• Event type (monetary policy, earnings, geopolitical, etc.)
• Source reliability tier
• Initial market reaction (if observable)

Step 2: Load Knowledge Base References

Objective: Access domain expertise to inform impact assessment.

Load relevant reference files based on collected news types:

Always Load:

• references/market_event_patterns.md - Comprehensive patterns for all major event types
• references/trusted_news_sources.md - Source credibility assessment

Conditionally Load (Based on News Collected):

If monetary policy news found:

• Focus on: market_event_patterns.md → Central Bank Monetary Policy Events section
• Key frameworks: Interest rate hike/cut reactions, QE/QT impacts, hawkish/dovish tone

If geopolitical events found:

• Load: references/geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md
• Focus on: Energy Commodities, Precious Metals, regional frameworks matching event

If mega-cap earnings found:

• Load: references/corporate_news_impact.md
• Focus on: Specific company sections, sector contagion patterns

If commodity news found:

• Load: references/geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md
• Focus on: Specific commodity sections (Oil, Gold, Copper, etc.)

Knowledge Integration: Compare collected news against historical patterns to:

• Predict expected market reactions
• Identify anomalies (market reacted differently than historical pattern)
• Assess whether reaction was typical magnitude or outsized
• Determine if contagion occurred as expected

Step 3: Impact Magnitude Assessment

Objective: Rank each news event by market impact significance.

Impact Assessment Framework:

For each news item, evaluate across three dimensions:

1. Asset Price Impact (Primary Factor):

Measure actual or estimated price movements:

Equity Markets:

• Index-level: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones
• Severe: ±2%+ in day
• Major: ±1-2%
• Moderate: ±0.5-1%
• Minor: ±0.2-0.5%
• Negligible: <0.2%

• Sector-level: Specific sector ETFs
• Severe: ±5%+
• Major: ±3-5%
• Moderate: ±1-3%
• Minor: <1%

• Stock-specific: Individual mega-caps
• Severe: ±10%+ (and index weight causes index move)
• Major: ±5-10%
• Moderate: ±2-5%

Commodity Markets:

• Oil (WTI/Brent):
• Severe: ±5%+
• Major: ±3-5%
• Moderate: ±1-3%

• Gold:
• Severe: ±3%+
• Major: ±1.5-3%
• Moderate: ±0.5-1.5%

• Base Metals (Copper, etc.):
• Severe: ±4%+
• Major: ±2-4%
• Moderate: ±1-2%

Bond Markets:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield:
• Severe: ±20bps+ in day
• Major: ±10-20bps
• Moderate: ±5-10bps

Currency Markets:

• USD Index (DXY):
• Severe: ±1.5%+
• Major: ±0.75-1.5%
• Moderate: ±0.3-0.75%

2. Breadth of Impact (Multiplier):

Assess how many markets/sectors affected:

• Systemic (3x multiplier): Multiple asset classes, global markets
• Examples: FOMC surprise, banking crisis, major war outbreak

• Cross-Asset (2x multiplier): Equities + commodities, or equities + bonds
• Examples: Inflation surprise, geopolitical supply shock

• Sector-Wide (1.5x multiplier): Entire sector or related sectors
• Examples: Tech earnings cluster, energy policy announcement

• Stock-Specific (1x multiplier): Single company (unless mega-cap with index impact)
• Examples: Individual company earnings, M&A

3. Forward-Looking Significance (Modifier):

Consider future implications:

• Regime Change (+50%): Fundamental market structure shift
• Examples: Fed pivot from hiking to cutting, major geopolitical realignment

• Trend Confirmation (+25%): Reinforces existing trajectory
• Examples: Consecutive strong inflation prints, sustained earnings beats

• Isolated Event (0%): One-off with limited forward signal
• Examples: Single data point within range, company-specific issue

• Contrary Signal (-25%): Contradicts prevailing narrative
• Examples: Good news ignored by market, bad news rallied

Impact Score Calculation:

Impact Score = (Price Impact Score × Breadth Multiplier) + Forward-Looking Modifier
 
Price Impact Score:
- Severe: 10 points
- Major: 7 points
- Moderate: 4 points
- Minor: 2 points
- Negligible: 1 point

Example Calculations:

FOMC 75bps Rate Hike (hawkish tone):

• Price Impact: S&P 500 -2.5% (Severe = 10 points)
• Breadth: Systemic (equities, bonds, USD, commodities all moved) = 3x
• Forward: Trend confirmation (ongoing tightening) = +25%
• Score: (10 × 3) × 1.25 = 37.5

NVIDIA Earnings Beat:

• Price Impact: NVDA +15%, Nasdaq +1.5% (Severe = 10 points)
• Breadth: Sector-wide (semis, tech broadly) = 1.5x
• Forward: Trend confirmation (AI demand) = +25%
• Score: (10 × 1.5) × 1.25 = 18.75

Geopolitical Flare-up (Middle East):

• Price Impact: Oil +8%, S&P -1.2% (Severe = 10 points)
• Breadth: Cross-asset (oil, equities, gold) = 2x
• Forward: Isolated event (no escalation) = 0%
• Score: (10 × 2) × 1.0 = 20

Single Stock Earnings (Non-Mega-Cap):

• Price Impact: Stock +12%, no index impact (Major = 7 points)
• Breadth: Stock-specific = 1x
• Forward: Isolated = 0%
• Score: (7 × 1) × 1.0 = 7

Ranking: After scoring all news items, rank from highest to lowest impact score. This determines report ordering.

Step 4: Market Reaction Analysis

Objective: Analyze how markets actually responded to each event.

For each significant news item (Impact Score >5), conduct detailed reaction analysis:

Immediate Reaction (Intraday):

• Direction: Positive, negative, mixed
• Magnitude: Align with price impact categories
• Timing: Pre-market, during trading, after-hours
• Volatility: VIX movement, bid-ask spreads

Multi-Asset Response:

Equities:

• Index performance (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000)
• Sector rotation (which sectors outperformed/underperformed)
• Individual stock moves (mega-caps, relevant companies)
• Growth vs Value, Large vs Small Cap divergences

Fixed Income:

• Treasury yields (2Y, 10Y, 30Y)
• Yield curve shape (steepening, flattening, inversion)
• Credit spreads (IG, HY)
• TIPS breakevens (inflation expectations)

Commodities:

• Energy: Oil (WTI, Brent), Natural Gas
• Precious Metals: Gold, Silver
• Base Metals: Copper, Aluminum (if relevant)
• Agricultural: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (if relevant)

Currencies:

• USD Index (DXY)
• EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
• Emerging market currencies
• Safe havens (JPY, CHF)

Derivatives:

• VIX (volatility index)
• Options activity (put/call ratio, unusual volume)
• Futures positioning

Pattern Comparison:

Compare observed reaction against expected pattern from knowledge base:

• Consistent: Reaction matched historical pattern
• Example: Fed hike → Tech stocks down, USD up (as expected)

• Amplified: Reaction exceeded typical pattern
• Example: Inflation print +0.3% above consensus → Selloff 2x typical
• Investigate: Positioning, sentiment, cumulative factors

• Dampened: Reaction less than historical pattern
• Example: Geopolitical event → Oil barely moved
• Investigate: Already priced in, other offsetting factors

• Inverse: Reaction opposite of historical pattern
• Example: Good news ignored, bad news rallied
• Investigate: "Good news is bad news" dynamics, Fed pivot hopes

Anomaly Identification:

Flag reactions that deviate significantly from patterns:

• Market shrugged off typically market-moving news
• Overreaction to typically minor news
• Contagion failed to spread as expected
• Safe havens didn't work (correlations broke)

Sentiment Indicators:

• Risk-On vs Risk-Off: Which regime dominated
• Positioning: Evidence of crowded trades unwinding
• Momentum: Follow-through in subsequent sessions or reversal

Step 5: Correlation and Causation Assessment

Objective: Distinguish direct impacts from coincidental timing.

Multi-Event Analysis:

When multiple significant events occurred in the 10-day period, assess interactions:

Reinforcing Events:

• Same directional impact
• Example: Hawkish FOMC + hot CPI → Both bearish for equities, amplified move
• Combined impact often non-linear (greater than sum of parts)